probability,likelihood和odds的区别?

发布网友发布时间：2022-04-23 23:34

共2个回答

热心网友时间：2023-10-13 19:44

在平时probability和odds通常是可以互换的，但是在数学角度上来看两者是有一定区别的。
Probability表示的是一个事件发生的几率，从0到1，如投掷一枚硬币，正面的几率为50%，反面的几率为50%。若是用odds来表示，就是1:1了。
Probability
is
defined
as
the
fraction
of
desired
outcomes
in
the
context
of
every
possible
outcome
with
a
value
between
0
and
1,
where
0
would
be
an
impossible
event
and
1
would
represent
an
inevitable
event.
Probabilities
are
usually
given
as
percentages.
[ie.
50%
probability
that
a
coin
will
land
on
HEADS.]
Odds
can
have
any
value
from
zero
to
infinity
and
they
represent
a
ratio
of
desired
outcomes
versus
the
field.
Odds
are
a
ratio,
and
can
be
given
in
two
different
ways:
‘odds
in
favor’
and
‘odds
against’.
‘Odds
in
favor’
are
odds
describing
the
if
an
event
will
occur,
while
‘odds
against’
will
describe
if
an
event
will
not
occur.
If
you
are
familiar
with
gambling,
‘odds
against’
are
what
Vegas
gives
as
odds.
More
on
that
later.
For
the
coin
flip
odds
in
favor
of
a
HEADS
outcome
is
1:1,
not
50%.

热心网友时间：2023-10-13 19:45

按照我的经验，除opportunity有机遇这层意思外，一般认为这几个都是同义词，可以通用的，其中要说区别的话chance一般指代比率，例如1/0，而probability一般指代分数如0.1，如果严格区分的话，在科学论文上probability是你运用你已经知道的知识对某个命题可靠性进行分析，而likelihood是依据客观的实验数据参数进行分析，chance在科学论文上则没有特定的定义，一般也不常用。